Kent County Council has approved a £7.3 million expansion of Oakwood Park Grammar School in Maidstone, adding 30 places a year from September 2027. The boys’ grammar school will increase its Published Admission Number from 160 to 190. The plans include three new classrooms, an extension to a science classroom, a new sports hall and upgrades to existing facilities. The project is being backed through the council’s Basic Need Capital Programme.
KCC argue that the expansion was needed because Maidstone Grammar School for Girls expanded in 2023, which meant an imbalance of boys and girls grammar places. Isn’t the bigger question why we’re allowing grammar school expansion at all?
Comprehensive Future Chair Dr Nuala Burgess said, “At a time when Kent is facing a severe SEND crisis, with pupil numbers surging and families struggling to find schools with the space and support their children need, the Council’s priorities could hardly be more misplaced.
“With schools across the county crying out for investment, this is simply the wrong choice at the wrong time. The question the Council needs to answer is why this was judged a better use of £7.3 million than investing in schools under the greatest pressure.
“This decision by Kent should ring alarm bells. Despite a ban on new grammar schools, Kent is continuing to expand selective education. Grammar schools have long been abandoned in most parts of the country because people recognised the damage they do to the wider school system, not least the ‘secondary modern’ effect, with non-selective schools left to educate a disproportionate share of disadvantaged pupils and pupils with SEND.
“No child needs a grammar school education. So why choose to spend £7.3 million expanding selective education, rather than investing in schools that work for every Kent child?”
Grammar schools have grown in recent years
Oakwood Park is one example of a wider expansion of grammar school capacity over the past 15 years.
New grammar schools have been prohibited since the School Standards and Framework Act in 1998. Existing grammar schools, however, are allowed to expand, including by increasing their admission numbers and, in some circumstances, opening satellite sites.
Comprehensive Future analysis of Department for Education figures shows that the number of pupils attending grammar schools rose from around 110,600 in 2010 to 137,912 in 2026, an increase of more than 27,000 pupils, or almost 25%.
That is a substantial increase in absolute terms, but England’s secondary school population also grew significantly during much of this period. Grammar schools have therefore continued to educate a broadly similar proportion of secondary pupils nationally rather than taking an ever-increasing share.
The important question may be what happens next.
What happens to grammar schools when pupil numbers fall?
The demographic trend which helped drive school expansion is now reversing.
Secondary pupil numbers in England have begun to fall after a decade of growth. Department for Education projections suggest that the state-funded secondary population will decline from around 3.216 million in 2026 to 2.967 million in 2031, a reduction of almost 250,000 pupils.
That does not mean every area will experience falling rolls at the same time. Housebuilding and other local demographic changes can create genuine demand for additional places.
But falling pupil numbers pose a particular question in selective areas.
Grammar schools are generally popular and oversubscribed. If they maintain or increase their intakes while the overall number of secondary-age children falls, the impact of falling rolls is likely to be felt disproportionately by neighbouring non-selective schools.
Those schools are likely to face smaller intakes, reduced funding and increasing pressure on staffing and curriculum provision, while selective schools remain full.
There is evidence that this has happened before. Research by Professor Becky Allen found that grammar schools remained full during an earlier period when the overall secondary school population was declining. When pupil numbers subsequently increased, grammar schools expanded alongside them.
If grammar schools expand when pupil numbers rise but do not contract when they fall, selection can gradually become more deeply embedded in local school systems.
School planning must look at the whole system
This is why decisions such as the Oakwood Park expansion cannot simply be considered in terms of demand for grammar school places. Expanding a grammar school changes the distribution of pupils between local schools. At a time when falling rolls threaten school funding, staffing and even the viability of some schools, councils should consider the effect of selective expansion on every school in the area.
In selective areas, grammar schools and non-selective schools draw pupils from the same population. Increasing the capacity of one part of that system inevitably has consequences for the other.
There is also extensive evidence that grammar school intakes are socially unrepresentative. Disadvantaged pupils are substantially under-represented in grammar schools, leaving neighbouring non-selective schools educating a disproportionate share of pupils facing additional challenges.
With England now entering a period of falling secondary rolls, there is a strong case for greater scrutiny of further grammar school expansion.
The government should consider the logic of maintaining a prohibition on new grammar schools while allowing existing selective schools to continue increasing their capacity.
At the very least, proposals to expand grammar schools should be assessed not simply on whether parents want additional grammar places, but on their impact on neighbouring schools, disadvantaged pupils, pupils with SEND and the sustainability of the wider local school system.
Falling rolls offer an opportunity to reduce the extent of selection gradually. We should not instead allow grammar schools to remain protected from demographic decline while non-selective schools are left to absorb the consequences.
