The press have been looking for evidence that Labour adding VAT to school fees has led to interest in grammar schools. Kent County Council even highlighted their concerns. “One further factor to monitor… is the level of displacement of children from independent schools into the maintained sector arising from the government’s decision to impose VAT on independent school fees.”

However, evidence so far suggests there’s been no change at all. The Guardian looked at this year’s school application statistics, including data from selective Kent, and concluded, ‘most councils say they have seen no impact from the policy in applications to start at state secondary schools later this year.’

The i paper spoke to 11-plus tutors who did flag an increase in their business. One said, “VAT is going to cut out naturally bright children that aren’t having a level of tuition that these kids are, so they don’t stand a chance.” But it’s hard to know how much to trust these comments. It’s in tuition businesses interests to suggest tuition is even more necessary than before.

The Grammar School Heads Association (GSHA) said its member schools had noticed “no significant increase in applications for grammar school places this year”. Also pointing out, “It is naturally in the commercial interest of tutoring companies to suggest that demand is increasing but that does not reflect schools’ actual experience.”

CF chair, Dr Nuala Burgess, said, “The fact that grammar school admissions can be gamed by those who can afford private tuition highlights the inbuilt unfairness in the 11-plus system. The fact that some children have a greater chance of getting into a grammar school because their families can afford it is enough to tell you that grammar school admissions are unjust. When a family’s wealth can buy advantage in our state education system, something has gone terribly wrong.

“We have always argued that the 11-plus is intrinsically unfair. It does not matter what the reason is – if a family can afford coaching, their child is automatically at a greater advantage than the child whose family cannot afford to pay for coaching. There is no evidence, yet, that wealthy families whose children have enjoyed the privilege of a private education intend to flock to grammar schools with the introduction of VAT on school fees. The majority of people who can afford to privately educate their children may not like the relatively small increase but it is one that they can usually absorb. As it is, we have the stats which show that some grammar schools admit more than a fifth of their pupils from fee-paying prep schools. I would be surprised if the number of families who game the 11-plus in this way will rise by very much.”